Tetiana Vasylieva

TU Bergakademie Freiberg,

Freiberg, Germany;

Sumy State University, Ukraine

Tetiana.Vasylieva@extern.tu-freiberg.de

ORCID 0000-0003-0635-7978 

From energy dependency to energy security: How the war in Ukraine accelerated renewable deployment in Europe

Arkadiusz Derkacz

University of Kalisz,

Kalisz, Poland

a.derkacz@uniwersytetkaliski.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0003-1363-9551

József Popp

John von Neumann University Doctoral School of Management and Business Administration, Hungary

Faculty of Applied Sciences, WSB University, Poland;

College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa

E-mail: jpopp@wsb.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0003-0848-4591

Andreas Horsch

TU Bergakademie Freiberg,

Freiberg, Germany

Andreas.Horsch@bwl.tu-freiberg.de

ORCID 0000-0003-4157-2454

Abstract. The war in Ukraine has transformed Europe’s energy landscape, prompting urgent efforts to accelerate the transition to renewable energy in response to both security and climate imperatives. The aim of this research is to examine whether the geopolitical shock of 2022, together with associated sanctions, produced a measurable acceleration in renewable electricity deployment across European countries. Using panel data for 34 countries from 2014 to 2023, the study employs difference-in-differences, event study, and triple-difference models, which utilise Eurostat and World Bank data, and variables are normalised through Yeo–Johnson transformations. The results demonstrate a significant structural break in 2022. Aggregate renewable and waste capacity increased by 0.55 (p < 0.001) on average, an effect that remained robust, though reduced to 0.16 (p < 0.001), when country-specific trends were controlled for. Technology-specific estimates reveal firm heterogeneity: solar expanded most rapidly (1.30, p < 0.001), wind capacity also rose (0.64, p < 0.01), whereas hydropower exhibited only marginal gains (0.10, p ≈ 0.05) and biofuels showed no systematic change. A triple-difference specification confirms that post-2022 acceleration was concentrated in fast-deploying technologies, with a differential effect of 1.55 (p < 0.001) compared to hydro and biofuels. These findings demonstrate that the war in Ukraine marked another turning point in Europe’s renewable energy transition.

Received: May, 2024

1st Revision: July, 2025

Accepted: September, 2025

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2025/18-3/13

JEL Classification: Q42, Q48, Q54

Keywords: renewable energy, Europe, Russian invasion, war in Ukraine, difference-in-differences, triple-difference, energy security