Journal of Scientific Papers

ECONOMICS & SOCIOLOGY


© CSR, 2008-2019
ISSN 2071-789X

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  • General Founder and Publisher:

     
    Centre of Sociological Research

     

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    Alexander Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations (Slovak Republic)



     
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Brexit and EU Common Agricultural Policy: The possible consequences for Lithuania

Vol. 12, No 2, 2019

Artiom Volkov,

 

Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics,

Vilnius, Lithuania

E-mail: artiom.volkov@laei.lt

Brexit and EU Common Agricultural Policy: The possible consequences for Lithuania

 

Tomas Baležentis,

 

Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics,

Vilnius, Lithuania

E-mail: tomas.balezentis@laei.lt


Mangirdas Morkūnas,

 

MykolasRomeris University,

Vilnius, Lithuania

E-mail: morkunas.mangirdas@mruni.eu


Dalia Streimikiene,

 

Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics,

Vilnius, Lithuania

E-mail: dalia@mail.lei.lt

 


 


 

Abstract. This paper examines the possible Brexit scenarios and their impacts on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) with particular focus on Lithuania. The paper outlines the scientific discourse on the imminent modifications of the CAP after the Brexit along with changes in the EU budget. The paper was prepared during the beginning of Brexit negotiations, with withdrawal terms not being publicly disclosed. Thus, the most likely assumptions have been accepted in order to model the scenarios. The possible effects of Brexit on the agriculture of the small EU Member States are discussed taking the case of Lithuania as an example. The empirical analysis showed that, in the case of three different Brexit-induced CAP modifications, Lithuanian agricultural sector may lose 1% to 20% of financial support under the CAP direct payment mechanism. The corresponding loss under these scenarios is quantified for agricultural sectors of all the EU Member States.

 

Received: November, 2018

1st Revision: March, 2019

Accepted: June, 2019

 

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2019/12-2/2

JEL ClassificationQ14, Q18

Keywords: Brexit, common agricultural policy, scenario modelling, Lithuania